Recently, not many producers have issued public price adjustment notices. That’s why Tihai’s letter has been repeatedly discussed—not because the increase is especially aggressive (RMB +500/ton domestically, USD +70/ton for overseas markets, with the same adjustment for both rutile and anatase), but because it puts into the open something everyone has been thinking but few have said outright: the tug-of-war between cost pressure and the existing price structure has reached a point where it needs to be recalibrated through a formal move.
When only one company issues such a notice, it can actually be more telling. It doesn’t necessarily mean the market will reverse immediately, but it often signals the market has entered a “testing phase”—the producer is gauging customer acceptance, watching channel reactions, and sending a message to peers: can the pricing system be nudged upward, starting with communication? In particular, the fact that rutile and anatase are being raised by the same amount suggests the driver is “cost + system” pressure, rather than a sudden shortage in a specific grade.
In the author’s view: first, a domestic increase of RMB +500 is a typical probing level—neither exaggerated nor overly conservative, with clear room for negotiation; second, the most valuable part of the letter is not the number itself, but that it may shift the market from “deadlock bargaining” to “room to test higher levels.” Once the bargaining atmosphere changes, transactions may begin to produce real samples at higher price ranges.
If we assess this notice in the context of today’s trading reality, the real dividing line is not “whether there is a price increase letter,” but whether three types of changes emerge next:
Transaction evidence: Are there buyers placing real orders at higher levels (even small lots or specified grades)?
Channel stance: Do distributors’ quotes shift from “quote to close” to “quote first, negotiate after,” with firmer negotiating floors?
Restocking behavior: Do downstream buyers show signs of “having to top up a bit” due to low inventories, even if they’re not actively bullish?
If any two of these three appear simultaneously, the notice will move from “signaling” to “transmission.” If none of them materialize, the letter will likely remain at the stage of “raising the anchor without raising the executed price”—quotes move up, but transactions may not follow in sync. Even so, it at least puts the brakes on bearish expectations.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the position of the author’s employer or affiliated institution. The content is for reference only and does not constitute any recommendation.
Post time: Feb-03-2026
